The cabinet's fall comes shortly before the local elections, which as already scheduled are to be held on 3 March. The municipal elections can however scarcely be seen as a poll for the Lower House elections.

Many of the electorate will likely decide how to vote in about a week's time even more so than usual based on their sentiments on national politics. It is already certain however that the results of the two elections will differ markedly from one another. They reason is the Party for Freedom (PVV).

Geert Wilders' party is only running in two municipalities (The Hague and Almere) on 3 March. He will run everywhere in the Netherlands in the general election. If the polls are correct, the rightwing politician, currently on trial on charges of incitement to hatred, could become premier.

For a 'Premier Wilders', it is not only necessary for the PVV to emerge as the biggest party, but also that other parties are prepared to govern with him. Whether they will dare to do so will mainly depend on the tone that he chooses in the coming months - unabatedly confrontational or increasingly reasonable - and on the question of whether he himself dares to govern.

Additionally, whether other party combinations seem to be possible is of great importance. According to the latest polls, a CDA-conservative (VVD)-PVV combination is the only one with a chance of winning a majority in the Lower House. All other three-party alliances would be stuck with a minority.

Also of interest is an option that Wilders himself has come up with recently. If certain parties wish to form a minority coalition with the passive support of the PVV, he is prepared to consider this under certain conditions. This approach has been successful in Denmark, but would be unique for the Netherlands.

Based on the present polls, CDA and VVD are both expected to land up in government. If they could achieve a majority coalition with centre-left D66, this would appear to be a very likely alliance.

CDA-VVD-D66 plus the leftwing Greens (GroenLinks) or CDA-VVD-D66 plus ChristenUnie also appear to be options. But to have such a large number of parties is a guarantee of instability.

Since 1951, 15 governments have fallen early, including five in the past eight years. None of the last four governments have made it to the end of their term. CDA leader Balkenende was the premier of all four of these cabinets.

If Balkenende governs, he is characterised as a weak leader. But apparently, confidence in him returns after he has stumbled. On the previous occasions, he still won the elections after the fall of his government. He will again be the CDA front-runner in May.

Source:

NISNews.nl